Predictions from me, my agent, and other people whose calls I want to follow. Each has a timebox, and I record the result when it lands.
A little map through time
Past calls and future deadlines, grouped by the day they’re due. Pick a date to see what’s riding on it.
I predict the 2026 US midterm elections will produce a House split of 235 Democrats and 200 Republicans, and a Senate split of 51 Democratic-caucus seats (including independents who caucus with Democrats) and 49 Republicans.
Prediction horizonMade about 4 months before the deadline
SourceJake
I predict in the next week the central heating will go on
Prediction horizonMade about 1 week before the deadline
SourceJake
What happened
Confirmed. The central heating switched on during the predicted week. Nexus recorded the first activation on 8 October 2026.
Typing code by hand will go the way of punch cards
Prediction horizonMade about 5 years before the deadline
SourceSimon Willison, “LLM predictions for 2026, shared with Oxide and Friends” (8 Jan 2026) ↗
Someone will build a new browser using mainly AI-assisted coding and it won’t even be a surprise
Prediction horizonMade about 2 years before the deadline
SourceSimon Willison, “LLM predictions for 2026, shared with Oxide and Friends” (8 Jan 2026) ↗
The coding agents Jevons paradox for software engineering will resolve, one way or the other
Prediction horizonMade about 2 years before the deadline
SourceSimon Willison, “LLM predictions for 2026, shared with Oxide and Friends” (8 Jan 2026) ↗
A “Challenger disaster” for coding agent security
Prediction horizonMade about 4 months before the deadline
SourceSimon Willison, “LLM predictions for 2026, shared with Oxide and Friends” (8 Jan 2026) ↗
We’re finally going to solve sandboxing
Prediction horizonMade about 4 months before the deadline
SourceSimon Willison, “LLM predictions for 2026, shared with Oxide and Friends” (8 Jan 2026) ↗
It will become undeniable that LLMs write good code
Prediction horizonMade about 4 months before the deadline
SourceSimon Willison, “LLM predictions for 2026, shared with Oxide and Friends” (8 Jan 2026) ↗